Nice intro to the issues. Thank you.
I’d like to prod a little deeper …
Regarding mini-splits, inverters and particularly:
" … we’re exploring ways to match outdoor temperature data to the home’s energy usage. This approach could yield good results for monthly usage data for HVAC systems with identical ACs or mini-split systems."
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LG and others are now making window inverter ACs. I just installed one. Just to make your life difficult.
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Some window units have resistive element heating modes.
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Industry will no-doubt introduce inverter-based compressor heating modes into window units and they will, hopefully quickly, supersede old-school ACs.
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Many (most) existing mini-split systems also heat … so the heating mode, in your “weather” match, shouldn’t be ignored!
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Because weather (temperature & humidity that is) is hyper-local (especially in an urban environment) are you looking in to ways to integrate user-based monitoring?
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Are the cross-overs with Solar output as a weather indicator being considered? Clouds! [The integration here seems key] @kevin1 has done some great exploration on this.
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BTW: Sump-pump goes on = rain?!